By SABRINA TAVERNISE

LAHORE, PAKISTAN


PAKISTAN WILL FACE a “demographic disaster if it does not address the needs of its young generation, the largest in the country’s history, whose views reflect a deep disillusionment with government and democracy.

These predictions, in a report released this month, draw a picture of a deeply frustrated generation that feels abandoned by its government and despondent about its future.

An overwhelming majority of young Pakistanis say their country is headed in the wrong direction, said the report, which was commissioned by the British Council and conducted by the Nielsen research company. Only 1 in 10 has confidence in the government. Most see themselves as Muslim first and Pakistani second, and they are now entering a work force in which the majority cannot find jobs, a volatile situation if the government cannot address its concerns.

And President Asif Ali Zardari could hardly be more unpopular. It is an increasingly urgent concern in a nuclear-armed nation where no elected civilian government - undone by its own vices and undercut by a powerful military and intelligence establishment - has ever survived a full term.

“This is a real wake-up call for the international community, said David Steven, a fellow at the Center for International Cooperation at New York University, who was an adviser on the report. “You could get rapid social and economic change. But the other route will lead to a nightmare that would unfold over 20 to 30 years.

The report provides an unsettling portrait of a difficult time for Pakistan, a 62- year-old nuclear-armed country that is fighting an insurgency surgency in its western mountains and struggling to provide for its rapidly expanding population. The population has risen by almost half in just 20 years, according to the report.

Only a fifth of those interviewed had permanent full-time jobs. Half said they did not have sufficient skills to enter the workplace. One in four could not read or write, a legacy of the country’s abysmal education system.

While most do not trust their government, they attach their loyalty to religion. Three-quarters identified themselves primarily as Muslim, with just one in seven identifying themselves as Pakistani.

The demographic power of this generation represents a turning point for Pakistan. Its energy, if properly harnessed, could power an economic rise, Mr. Steven said.

But if the opportunity is squandered by insufficient investment in areas like education and health care, the country will face a demographic disaster, the report said. The report calculated that Pakistan’s economy would need to grow by 36 million jobs in the next decade, an enormous challenge in an economy that is growing by about a million jobs a year.

The study interviewed 1,226 Pakistanis ages 18 to 29, from different backgrounds across the country, in March and April. More than 70 percent said they were worse off financially than they were last year. This year’s budget earmarks just 2 percent of the economy for education, about half the percentage spent in India and Turkey.

Life in rural areas is rudimentary. The report cites data showing that 40 percent of households have no electricity, and that animal dung and leftover waste from crops account for more than 80 percent of the country’s energy use.

Young people’s biggest concern - far above terrorism - was inflation, which rose to 23 percent in 2009, pushing 7 percent of Pakistanis back into poverty, the report said. More than 90 percent agreed better quality education was a priority.

“Here a student struggles day and night but the son of a rich man by giving money gets higher marks than him, the report quoted a young man in Lahore as saying.

Najam Sethi, editor in chief of The Friday Times, a Pakistani weekly, argues that expressions of angst are related to the failed hopes of the 2008 election, which restored civilian government after nearly a decade of military rule.

“There is a feeling of impotence, frustration and anger all around, and Zardari is on the receiving end, Mr. Sethi said.

Only a third of those polled thought democracy was the best system for Pakistan, equal to the fraction preferring Islamic law, in what David Martin, director of the British Council in Pakistan, called “an indictment of the failures of democracy over many years.”

While there is no doubt that Mr. Zardari has brought much of the trouble on himself, his situation is also part of a recurring struggle, noted Aasim Sajjad, an assistant professor of political economy at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad.

“It’s a story of a military that’s so bloated and so completely used to having a total monopoly on the affairs of the state,” he said. “All they have to feel is a very minute threat to respond in a very defensive way.”

That does not mean the military wants to run the country again. “Memories of military rule are very fresh,” said Ahsan Iqbal, an opposition lawmaker. “People have seen that it is not the solution.”

Only 1 in 10 said they were “very interested” in political events in Pakistan, while more than a third said they were not interested at all. The highest-ranking institution was Pakistan’s military. Sixty percent of those interviewed said that they trusted it. Second highest was religious educational institutions, trusted by about 50 percent of respondents. The national government came last at 10 percent.

Military or civilian, the government has failed to channel the energy of Pakistan’s youth. But militant groups have succeeded, drawing educated and uneducated young people with slogans of jihad and, in some cases, of social justice.

The findings were sobering for Pakistani officials. Faisal Subzwari, minister of youth affairs for Sindh Province, who attended the presentation of the report in Lahore, said: “These are the facts. They might be cruel, but we have to admit them.

But young Pakistanis have demonstrated their appetite for collective action, with thousands of people taking to the streets last spring as part of a movement of lawyers, who were demanding the reinstatement of the chief justice, and Mr. Steven argued that the country’s future would depend on how the energy of young people was channeled. “Can Pakistan harness this energy, or will it continue to fight against it?” he said.


ALEXANDRE MENEGHINI/ASSOCIATED PRESS / Pakistanis, particularly the young, are becoming disillusioned with their government. These tribal people were displaced due to fighting near the Afghan border.

TYLER HICKS/THE NEW YORK TIMES / A majority of young Pakistanis believe their country is headed in the wrong direction, a survey reveals. A student in Lahore.