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Staving Off Technological Oblivion

2009-08-19 (수) 12:00:00
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▶ ESSAY - MARY TRIPSAS

Driven by the pressure to innovate, companies facing major technological change have wholeheartedly embraced management gurus’ advice on how to develop creative, breakthrough products.

New technologies are obviously important, but even in today’s fast-paced environment, they can take a long time to substitute for the old. In the meantime, incremental innovation based on old technologies can help a company survive.

When Sony announced its Mavica electronic camera in 1981, headlines trumpeted that “Film Is Dead.” But it took 28 more years for Kodachrome to finally die this past June.


The reality is that most technologies eventually die. But today’s managers need not assume that an old technology’s fate is predetermined. Companies can manage the innovation endgame. Continuing improvements to extend the life of technology, particularly given the attractive margins on the old, can be a wise business decision.

The key is to extend the profitable life of the old just long enough to have a fighting chance in the new. But how?

Customers move at different speeds, so investments should be focused on markets that value the old. Criticisms of Kodak’s digital strategy abound, but one overlooked strength has been its ability to maintain its market position in segments like motion pictures, which, though small, are moving to digital more slowly.

History provides another illustration. Mechanical machines that used molten lead had dominated the typesetter industry for more than 60 years when photography-based machines were introduced in 1949. Along with many new entrants, the leading old-technology companies, Mergenthaler Linotype and Intertype, invested heavily in the new technology.

But the mechanical technology “was well known by the people who were using it,” Carl Schlesinger, a former typesetter operator for The New York Times and author of two books on the history of printing, said in a recent interview. The new technology required customers, particularly unionized newspapers, to make huge investments in retraining.

So throughout the 1950s and ‘60s, Mergenthaler Linotype and Intertype continued to develop highly innovative mechanical machines, Herb Klepper, a lead engineer for Mergenthaler at the time, said in a recent interview. The speed of the old machines more than doubled, and newspapers kept using them. By 1978, when The Times retired its old mechanical machines, Mergenthaler Linotype was an established leader in the new technology, and Intertype, while not a leader, had survived to move on to yet the next generation of technology, digital typesetters.

Of course, managers still need to know when to move on. When steamships began to compete with sailing ships for freight traffic, the sailing-ship producers went too far. By 1902, with the building of the Thomas W. Lawson, the largest sailing ship ever, with seven masts and 25 sails, sailing technology had reached a point of diminishing returns, and the competition with steamships had already been lost.


Ultimately, it’s all about balance. The future of a company depends on success in the new. But the old needn’t be framed as a “cash cow” or as a source of inertia holding back the company’s creative impulses. Intelligent innovation in the old may just hold the key to the future.


HSPACE=5
Newspaper linotype machines did not become obsolete overnight.


Mary Tripsas is an associate professor at the Harvard Business School.

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