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Vying for Influence Where Empires Cross

2009-08-05 (수) 12:00:00
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CLIFFORD J. LEVY - ESSAY

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan - The first high-level customers to arrive at this stop on the Silk Road in July were two of Vladimir V. Putin’s confidants. Got some land for stationing Russian troops - say, something with a nice long runway?


Soon after, a senior American diplomat dropped by. Can we put the final touches on that deal to keep our own military base here?

Kyrgyzstan, a mountainous nation in Central Asia that has long been a contender for the title of most obscure former Soviet republic, has suddenly become prime real estate.

Its unexpected emergence onto the international stage says much about how the war in nearby Afghanistan, the struggle for political influence in the former Soviet Union, and the competition to control Central Asia’s bountiful oil and gas reserves are reshaping priorities of the world’s military and economic titans.

Kyrgyzstan is the only country in the world that hosts separate military bases for the United States and Russia, and both powers are bent on sustaining or deepening their presence. That in part explains why neither has condemned the heavy-handed tactics of the Kyrgyz president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who easily won another term in mid-July in an election that his opponents said was rigged.

The United States believes that it must have a sizable military base in Central Asia to support the NATO mission in Afghanistan, especially now that supply routes through Pakistan are perilous. The American installation on the outskirts of the Kyrgyz capital is crowded with planes that readily reach the Afghan skies for mid-air refueling of fighters.

Those planes have stirred deep unease in the Kremlin, which tried to persuade Mr. Bakiyev to oust the Americans, in the end unsuccessfully. Central Asia is Moscow’s former territory and current backyard, and the Kremlin evinces a sense of entitlement here, not to mention a desire to dominate natural resources.

At the same time, the Russians seem torn over the American venture in Afghanistan. They understand that failure could threaten even Russia, which has grappled with Islamic extremism in its south, so they have allowed American military goods to flow across Russia. Still, the Kremlin fears that the United States is setting down lasting roots in Central Asia.


Russia’s role in the former Soviet republics has been a constant source of friction between the two sides. Recently, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. visited Ukraine and Georgia and rebuked Russia for its “19th-century notion of spheres of influence.

The other major player in Central Asia is China, which is also wary of the spread of Muslim fundamentalism. The Chinese concerns were underscored in recent weeks by the uprising by Uighurs, a Muslim ethnic group, in the Chinese region that borders Central Asia. Chinese companies are also investing billions of dollars in Central Asia.

The Chinese do not have a base here, though rumors have abounded that they want one. The French, Germans and Indians all have small installations in Central Asia.

“Everyone, all these powers, have a vital interest in this region, said Andrei V. Fedorov, an analyst at the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy in Moscow. “It is not just economic. It is also stability. If something goes wrong in Central Asia, it will hit everyone around - Pakistan, Afghanistan, China - and will have great repercussions.


HSPACE=5
Kyrgyzstan is the only country to have American and Russian military bases .


HSPACE=5
With its energy reserves and proximity to Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan is of great interest to Russia, America and China. Guards marched in a central square in Bishkek.

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