▶ 10-Year Yield Also Surpasses 4.5%… Dollar Weakens
▶ Concerns Over Worsening Fiscal Deficit Amplify After Moody’s Downgrade
Amid growing concerns over an expanding US fiscal deficit due to President Donald Trump’s aggressive push for a massive tax cut bill, US long-term Treasury yields rose on May 21 (indicating a decline in bond prices).
According to the electronic trading platform Tradeweb, as of 10 a.m. on the day, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury note increased by 5 basis points (1 bp = 0.01%) from the previous session to 5.02%, surpassing the 5% mark again after two days.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, a global benchmark for bond yields, rose by 6 basis points at the same time to 4.54%, climbing back above the 4.5% threshold after two days.
The yields on both the 30-year and 10-year US Treasuries had previously touched 5% and 4.5%, respectively, on May 19, following a downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s, sparking concerns of a renewed “Sell America” trend (a sell-off of US assets).
President Trump’s pressure on hardline Republicans to pass the tax cut bill in Congress has heightened fears of an expanding fiscal deficit, increasing selling pressure on US Treasuries.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, is working to pass what is referred to as “one big, beautiful bill,” which includes the extension and expansion of Trump’s tax cuts, before Congress recesses for Memorial Day on May 26. On May 16, the international credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from the top-tier “Aaa” to “Aa1,” citing the rising federal debt and reduced fiscal revenue due to tax cut policies as the reasons for the downgrade. Moody’s estimated that if the tax cuts, originally implemented during Trump’s first term in 2017 and set to expire at the end of this year, are extended, they could add $4 trillion annually to the fiscal deficit over the next decade.
Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened against major currencies on the same day.
The Dollar Index, which measures the dollar’s value against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.55% from the previous session to 99.57 at the same time.